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Do you think that people who smoke or overeat carte jeux carrefour do so because they dont understand the risks involved?
The problem is not that people are stupid; the problem is that the information is often presented in a misleading way.
My point is not that intuition is always superior.
When I was a graduate student I was earning good money as a banjo-player, but I had to choose between making music my career or going into academia.Why are we being misinformed?It is a precondition for a functioning democracy that people should not be easily frightened into surrendering their money, their welfare and their liberty.You need both those tools.There is a simple explanation: they get less information and less misleading information.In a world of uncertainty you need rules of thumb, called heuristics.If you have three options, its.3.But almost no money is given for prevention.
Assume you want to invest money and you use the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimisation an investment model used by many banksHarry Markowitz won the Nobel Prize for that.
A gut decision is not arbitrary, or a sixth sense.We would have a democracy where people would learn to ask questions and learn to be critical, and not be willing to have their money taken away, their health endangered, and their liberty taken away.So a strategy like a heuristic is not better or worse, its just that you need to figure out where it works.In the good old times when I was growing up there were rules of thumb like: eat three meals a day and nothing in between.But when Markowitz did his own investment, he didnt use his own technique but a simple rule of thumb, which is: divide your money equally among your investments.In my opinion, the one thing that is not followed through and tried is to work with children in first grade.You also talk about an unconscious rules of thumb, or intuition.But in case anyone thinks Mr Gigerenzer is risk averse, he makes it clear in his latest book, "Risk Savvy that without taking risks, innovation would end, as would fun, and courage would belong to the past.In our society, intuition is looked upon as suspicious.And also teach them the psychological mechanisms that the tobacco industry uses to make them want to smoke, like advertisements.Being risk savvy is not about avoiding risks but about understanding risks and then making an informed choice.There are interest groups who lobby, but also we should not underestimate the lack of knowledge about evidence in medicine.My own research has shown that we can easily teach people and give them the tools.For these situations, there are rules of thumb, such as fear whatever your social group fears, and dont buy a financial product that you dont understand.What can you do?
I have done a number of studies with large international companies and asked the decision-maker how often do you make important decisions with your gut?
Ive had presidents of national cancer societies in my office and found out to my surprise that they dont know what the benefit of screening.
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